So, it's 2010.
I'm sitting on the top bunk of a 12-person dorm room in Portugal - 10,000 miles away from my home in Australia.
I hear the door open but return to the book I'm reading.
“What are you doing?” says a voice with a Canadian accent.
She does a quick take of the books on my bed and asks, “Are you studying?”
I'm in trouble. There's nothing dorkier than reading textbooks in a dorm room.
But we start talking, and I realize this is the girl of my dreams.
Now, 15 years later, we're married with two girls and a 15-pound chihuahua.
And it got me thinking…
Man, what are the chances we ended up in that same room that night?
Did we do something that could have made it happen?
So, I dove into the science and read the top four books on the psychology, philosophy, and math of luck.
You could spend hours reading these books yourself, or you can read this and get the shortcuts.
This stuff changed my life, and I want to share the two most actionable ways I’ve found to bring more luck into my life.
If you want to read these books on Luck for yourself, here they are:
- The Luck Factor
- Luck is No Accident
- The Drunkard’s Walk
- Fooled by Randomness
The authors behind these books are heavy hitters - PhDs, statisticians, professors.
So when all four of them agree on these three big ideas about luck, we should listen.
Okay, let's get into it!
The first common theme is...
Openness to luck
Every author agreed that if you want to find luck, openness to new experiences is the most important ingredient.
That's because the degree of luck we find is directly correlated with the number of new experiences we bring into our lives (new experiences = new luck).
But luck is not always a welcome guest, but I'll get into that later.
Consider this analogy - two boats fishing at sea:
One stays near the shore, catching the usual fish. Safe but predictable.
The other ventures into deeper waters in the unknown. There’s some scary stuff down there, but amidst the uncertainty, lie the most significant catches—those that require courage to seek out.
For an introvert like me, putting myself out there more has been key to inviting more unexpected opportunities into my life.
Because sometimes in the deep, you’ll find fish and opportunities that you didn't expect.
And how you respond to that is the second common theme in all these books.
The Power of Perception
The authors of these books agree that how we perceive luck influences our experience of it.
Luck isn't a special gift only reserved for the well-off and wise. So much of it is how you see luck. But you have to appreciate luck on the right time scale.
In my day, if you wanted to get a good graduate job after college, getting experience through an internship was critical.
During one of my final years at university, I applied for a few and got an interview at a well-known accounting company.
I thought I was set. The problem was… they didn’t want me.
Thinking I'd be an easy yes, I didn't prepare and fumbled through the interview.
They passed on me and I was crushed.
This was not the future I planned. What now?
I watched my peers go off to opportunities that I wish I had. The rejection stung, but it got me thinking.
I’ve been lucky to get the interview. Privileged even.
I'd like to saw I was fuelled by all good intentions, but part of me was really hurt and I wanted to prove them wrong.
I sought feedback on my interview skills, enrolled in more courses, and did everything I could to get better.
And by the time the following year came around, I was ready.
I got an internship at another company, which led to a graduate role, which set an even more exciting path for my professional career.
But making that conversion takes time, and a powerful mental model known as reframing. This is something I’m teaching my three-year-old daughter right now.
Learning through drawing is one of our favourite things to do. She can get scared by thunderstorms, but through drawing, I’ve shown her that you need storms for the best rainbows.
All these books agree that shifting your perspective like that can significantly alter your perception of luck.
For me, being rejected by that accounting firm was actually one of the best things that ever happened to me. Reframing stuff like that can open the door to luck.
Now, here’s the final thing the authors all agree on.
Even when we're open to luck and perceive it positively, a lot of life is just a roll of the dice, so we need to expect unplanned events.
Impact of Randomness
If I’d got that first internship and built new relationships that led me down the path I had originally wanted, one thing would have led to another and I have no idea where I’d be now.
There are so many versions of these alternate realities we never see.
In my everyday life, imagining these alternate paths helps remind me that the dice are always being rolled.
The thing is best captured in The Drunkard’s Walk. The author reminds us that randomness is far beyond our control.
Chance can lift you up and it can take you down, and how you respond to it is often how you make your own luck.
This has helped me already recognize bad luck when it happens, and have a more compassionate view for other people when they find it themselves. Because the truth is, everyone is rolling dice.
So that's the simple part.
What these books agree on us you have to be open to luck, you got to see it in a positive way, and you have to embrace that randomness of luck in your life and other people.
But there were also three big ideas in his book the authors didn’t see eye-to-eye on.
One of the differing views is how much control we have over luck.
Control Over Luck
When I was a teenager, I lived and breathed basketball. I had a bunch of rituals I’d follow before games.
One of them was my lucky socks. They were a secret key to my playing my best and our team getting the win.
One day, I arrived at the game and realised I'd left them at home.
I panicked, rushed home and missed the game's opening minutes.
When I told my coach why I disappeared - he looked at me like I was crazy. But I was convinced I couldn't play well without them.
Turns out it’s common to think we can influence our luck in strange ways, with lucky charms and weird rituals.
Some of the book authors would say those lucky socks provided a psychological boost, others would see my attachment to these socks as just plain silly.
This is something referred to as the Illusion of Control.
People create stories to explain random events in a way that satisfies their need to believe in things.
But maybe we all have our 'lucky socks'— be it a ritual, a superstition we cling to in times of uncertainty, trying to have some sense of control in the randomness of life.
So, when we want to become luckier, let’s be clear what we’re asking for. Is it comfort, confidence, or finding something new?
This leads us to a second big conflicting theme in the books.
Optimism vs. Realism
Luck Factor and No Accident promote the value of having an optimistic outlook.
That being an optimist helps you discover luck. But the other authors suggest we’re far better off being realistic with ourselves.
Are we supposed to see the glass as half empty or half full? I side with The Drunkard’s Walk and Fooled by Randomness on this one.
Being full or empty does not matter - we just need to see the glass for what it is.
This realist way of seeing luck reminded me of the Stockdale Paradox which Jim Collins talks about in his books, where we meet brutal adversity with relentless optimism.
And this brings me to the last conflicting concept of luck - how much luck is too much?
Risk Management
When we go about adding new variables to our life to find more luck - we're going to be welcoming all types of it. The good kind and the bad.
The authors of The Drunkard’s Walk and Fooled by Randomness say that sometimes welcoming too much luck can cause devastating outcomes.
They use this concept of ‘Tail Events’ to explain it - which are things that lie at the outer edges (or the tails) of what we normally expect to happen.
They are rare and unpredictable... like the 2008 financial crisis or natural disasters.
You can't plan for these disruptions, but history shows they come up more than we expect.
So you may want to embrace a little bit of luck and randomness, but avoid chasing huge amounts of it, because you may find something that can completely wipe you out.
Actionable Advice
You’ve now got the main lessons from these authors and their thousands of hours of research.
But knowledge without application won’t help us. So, here's the most important part – how to bring luck into your life today?
Thankfully you've done the first part already, you’ve Educated Yourself on Luck.
Just being aware of the role of chance and randomness gets us ahead of most people.
I found that I’ve learned to appreciate the potential of new experiences because I know that’s where luck lives. And taking the lessons from these authors helps us be better equipped to identify luck when it shows up, and avoid dwelling in negativity when luck doesn't go our way.
Because that last one is the most powerful one… and that is to Develop Resilience
One of my favourite concepts in all these books on this was by Nassim Taleb.
He talks about the Hydra—a three-headed monster that fought Hercules. Because the thing was - bad things actually made the monster stronger. If one of its heads was chopped off, three more would grow in its place!
What he is describing is something that actually improves when things go bad.
We can learn good things from bad monsters and embody that spirit too.
Even when you receive bad luck - seeing setbacks as just opportunities for growth is key.
Now one of the biggest areas where we need luck is in our career.
I met my wife in that dorm because we were both willing to seek out new experiences. And because she dared talk to me while I was busy hiding in my book.
But we learned from each other, and after my crush became my wife, we moved to America.
That one lucky conversation in that hostel changed the direction of my life and my career forever.
But changing countries and careers wasn’t easy, and brought its own setbacks and search for more luck.
So I wrote about it, which you can check out here.
